Decision and indecision in warfare

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President Johnson, Indecision, and the Vietnam War

In 1965, American President Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to end the war in Vietnam. Assuming office after the assassination of President Kennedy, Johnson did not believe the Vietnam War was a priority. When he reached the point of escalation, he deferred the decision. Once he agreed in principle to escalate America's involvement in Vietnam, he and his administration officials downplayed the change and prevaricated with the media, leading to a credibility gap that would ultimately end his career.

Advisors' Concern

Johnson's advisors were concerned that he kept delaying a decision on Vietnam escalation. National Security Advisor MacGeorge Bundy later remarked that Johnson "really didn't want to have to decide." Bundy and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara together wrote a memo to Johnson, implying his indecision made the problem worse: "the worst course of action is to continue in this essentially passive role which can only lead to eventual defeat." They urged him to commit to escalation and force a change in communist policy. They worried about his continuing deferral of the start of Phase II – the retaliatory air raids which eventually led America deeper into war.

Credibility Gap

Once he did commit to escalation, he and his officials consistently portrayed it as no real change. To the media, to the Congress, to the American public, they proclaimed that it was not an escalation, but retaliation for aggression. While authorizing steps that would expand America's commitment to the war, they said the policy remained the same. Johnson didn't want to give another speech; he thought his speech announcing retaliatory air raids was sufficient, even when the air raids morphed into a sustained bombing campaign. This lack of information and Johnson's refusal to publicly announce policy changes ultimately ended his career.

Johnson deferred and refused to act ultimately because he thought he had no good options. He could either escalate or get out of Vietnam. Getting out of Vietnam would mean admitting defeat, something he was not prepared to do. But escalating had its own problems. So he deferred and when he no longer could, he chose escalation so long as the media framed it to his liking. That led to his credibility gap, which led to the public outcry. In the end, Johnson chose not to run for re-election, marking the end of his political career. But his choice to escalate the conflict in Vietnam continues to reverberate through American politics today; the phrase "another Vietnam" has entered the vocabulary and has affected a whole host of vital decisions ever since.

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